Harnic population patterns
Disclaimer: This is a derivative work discussing Hârn or Hârn World, originally created by N. Robin Crossby. No assertion of copyright to Hârn or Hârn World is made by producer or the publisher of this work.
The sparseness of Harnic population has been often discussed, and on occasion the impact of fertility, life expectancy and survivability have been mentioned. The following calculations aim to give a comprehensive picture of these variables in a way which explains the low population numbers of Harn.
It should be noted that our knowledge of pre-modern agrarian population patterns is not totally solid. The following calculations are based on a generalized pattern, derived from 11th century Hungary and late 13th century England. The results have been cross-checked and further filled-in with the population data from a modern third world country (Mozambique). However, the reader should note that all pre-modern or third world populations do not necessarily follow this population pattern, and even small differences in fertility and survivability will lead into markedly different results.
The survey concludes with notes on the Harnic history and different variables affecting the Harnic society and population level.
Survivability, life expectancy and population patterns
General pre-modern agrarian population patterns
| Living members of a generation | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | % of gen. | % of pop. | Proportion of age groups | Approximate |
| 0 | 100 % | 16.10 % | ||
| 5 | 75 % | 12.08 % | ||
| 10 | 65 % | 10.47 % | Children (0-14): 38.65 % | about 39 % |
| 15 | 60 % | 9.67 % | Young adults (15-19): 9.67 % | about 10 % |
| 20 | 55 % | 8.86 % | ||
| 25 | 50 % | 8.05 % | ||
| 30 | 45 % | 7.25 % | ||
| 35 | 40 % | 6.44 % | Adults (20-39): 30.60 % | about 31 % |
| 40 | 35 % | 5.64 % | ||
| 45 | 30 % | 4.83 % | ||
| 50 | 24 % | 3.86 % | ||
| 55 | 18 % | 2.90 % | ||
| 60 | 12 % | 1.93 % | Elders (40-64): 19.16 % | about 19 % |
| 65 | 6 % | 0.97 % | ||
| 70 | 3 % | 0.48 % | ||
| 75 | 2 % | 0.32 % | ||
| 80 | 1 % | 0.16 % | Old (65+): 1.93 % | about 2 % |
| (621 %) | 100.01% | |||
In the filthy pre-modern cities, only some 50 % of the generation at most survived childhood, and a constant influx of people was needed to keep the population level stable. In sparsely populated and rural Harn this has no marked impact on the general population pattern.
Situation on Harn
Considering the Harnic situation with slightly better medicine than in a typical pre-modern setting, and some magic, and paying attention to the family breeding patterns that are evidently prohibiting large population increase, we might say that compared to the pattern presented above, less babies are born in Harn, more Harnic babies live through their childhood, and more Harnic adults live to an old age. Thus we get a following hypothetical pattern for Harnic populations:
| Age | Proportion |
|---|---|
| Children (0-14) | 38.0 % |
| Young adults (15-19) | 9.6 % |
| Adults (20-39) | 30.0 % |
| Elders (40-64) | 19.4 % |
| Old people (65-) | 3.0 % |
The expected lifetime for Harnians is a little over 25 years at birth, and those that survive childhood (i.e. live to be 15 years old) can expect to live to an age of about 50 years. There are, however, differences in survivability based on gender.
Gender and age groups
Considering the proportion of genders, the following patterns should be noted:
- more boys than girls are born (52%-48%),
- more boys than girls die in their childhood,
- with young adults, the proportions of the genders tend to be equal,
- many young women die in childbirth, resulting in proportionally fewer (full) adult women,
- males are more prone to face a violent death throughout their lives, resulting in proportionally more older women.
Thus we get the following breakdown of gender and age groups in Harn:
| Age | Men | Women | All | Proportion of women in age group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Children (0-14) | 19.4 % | 18.6 % | 38.0 % | 48.9 % |
| Adults (15-64) | 29.3 % | 29.7 % | 59.0 % | 50.3 % |
| young (15-19) | 4.8 % | 4.8 % | 9.6 % | 50.0 % |
| full (20-39) | 15.2 % | 14.8 % | 30.0 % | 49.3 % |
| elder (40-64) | 9.3 % | 10.1 % | 19.4 % | 52.1 % |
| Old (65-) | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 3.0 % | 56.7 % |
| Total: | 50.0 % | 50.0 % | 100.0 % |
Of all people, 50 % are male and 50 % female. Of all adults (15 years old and elder), 30.6 % are male and 31.4 % female.
Males suitable for service in the military
Taking into notion the fact that in a pre-modern agrarian society up to 20 % of the adult male population is crippled because of hard work (back aches etc.), because of accidents (lame/missing body parts), because of famine (weak frames), and because of mental problems (madmen etc.), and that because of old age such problems get worse in the elder population, we get the number of males suitable for the military.
| Men suitable for military | % of gen. | % of population | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Young (15-19) | 4.8 % | 90 % | 4.3 % |
| Full (20-39) | 15.2 % | 85 % | 12.9 % |
| Elder (40-64) | 9.3 % | 80 % | 7.4 % (in Tharda, retirees) |
| Old (65-) | 1.3 % | 70 % | 0.9 % |
| Total: | 30.6 % | 25.5 % | |
Thus we can assume that of a typical Harnic population, approximately 1/4 can be counted among the able-bodied men suitable for military service. Of course, very few of them are professionals, a substantial proportion lacking even the militia training.
Households, family planning and local society on Harn
A Harnic civilized household has approximately 5 people. Two of them are children, a girl and a boy, and three of them are grown-ups, one man and one woman, the third being of either gender. However, a typical Harnic household with exactly the given proportions of age and sex groups is a generalisation. Instead households vastly differ from each other, representing the phase of generation, the societal situation, the presence of other family members, and all the accidents possible in human life. Thus the population patterns presented above should not be utilized for generation of local population patterns. Even the entire population of a typical Harnic realm (about 110.000 people) might be too small to mirror exactly the general population pattern on Harn.
However, if we create an ideal town of 200 people – 40 households – we might be able to see how the population patterns transform into individual households, and what general implications this has on the Harnic society.
The 200 people are divided into following gender and age groups:
| Age | Men | Women | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children (0-14) | 39 | 37 | 76 |
| Young adults (15-19) | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Adults (20-39) | 30 | 30 | 60 |
| Elders (40-64) | 19 | 20 | 39 |
| Old people (65-) | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Total: | 100 | 100 | 200 |
There are nine general types of households:
| Household | Typical? |
| Young couples without children | Rare |
| Young couples with children | Typical |
| Young widows with children | Rare |
| Elder couples without children | Rare |
| Elder couples with children | Typical |
| Elder widows with children | Normal |
| Old couples without children | Rare |
| Old couples with children, of which some may be adults | Rare |
| Old widows with children, of which some may be adults | Rare |
To these households should be added the many cases where single sisters/brothers, or elder/old parents (widows) live in the households of their married sisters/brothers or children. There is the question if single adults living in other households should be counted into that household. In the following calculations this has been done. Living in a household of several people is assumed to be a default condition for all Harnians. Harnians generally do not want to live alone, even if they do not have spouse or offspring. In the table below, such individuals are noted as additional individuals, preceded by “+”. Also, a single building may be inhabited by more than one household, and even if these households mostly share their everyday life, they are still considered separate households.
Scenario one
The 40 households can be divided as follows:
| Household | Children and young adults | Adults | Elders | Old |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Young couple without children | - | 2 | +1 | - |
| 18 Young couples with children | 58+3 | 36+10 | +10 | +1 |
| 1 Young widow with children | 2 | 1 | - | - |
| 1 Elder couple without children | - | - | 2 | - |
| 9 Elder couples with children (some adult) | 11+15 | 10 | 18+5 | - |
| 3 Elder widows with children | 5+2 | - | 3 | +1 |
| 1 Old couple without children | - | - | - | 2 |
| 1 Old widow with adult children | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| Total: | 76+20 | 50+10 | 23+16 | 3+2 |
In this scenario there are perhaps 10 households with less than 5 members, 20 households with 5 members and 10 households with more than 5 members. The town has 20 young, unmarried adults (15-19), 22 unmarried adults (20-39), 19 unmarried elder adults (40-64), and 3 unmarried old (65+) people. 59 % of the adults in child bearing age are married, and a similar percentage of them have children. In a household with (partly adult) children the proportion of children to their parents is 107:59 or 1.81:1.
The large number of unmarried adults in their childbearing age tells of economical and population stagnation, where marrying and getting children is often considered too expensive and/or too risky. People marry late, and some never marry. This situation prevails throughout Harn, being the major reason for the small population numbers. Many men without families serve their household and community in the military. The reasons for the economical stagnation are:
- primitive agricultural technology (agricultural area can not be utilized in the best way),
- harsh weather often resulting in crop failures,
- military threats (banditry, warring nobles, barbarians, and the occasional Gargun and Ivashu, in this order of importance),
- over-taxation (allowing the small Harnic elites to keep up a lifestyle comparable to their mainland cousins),
- cultural stagnation (the society is strictly organized, restricting freedom of movement and freedom of choosing one’s profession and spouse),
- irrational religious practices (the Agrikan, Halean, Morgathian and Navehan religions do not support society, which is mirrored in the capricious and/or brutal activity of their followers).
Compared to our living standards, this scenario puts Harnians in a crisis society, often struggling against the force of circumstances to avoid death and starvation. While this scenario is indeed gritty, it is not much worse than the general pre-modern situation.
Scenario two
The 40 households can be divided as follows:
| Household | Children and young adults | Adults | Elders | Old |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Young couples with children | 70+5 | 40+15 | - | +4 |
| 20 Elder couples with (adult) children | 16+15 | 5 | 38 | +1 |
| 1 elder widow with an adult child | - | 1 | 1 | - |
| Total: | 76+20 | 60 | 39 | 5 |
This is socially an ideal scenario, where 80 % of the adults have families and children, all but one widow have remarried, and all old people live with their children’s families. Again, there are perhaps 10 households with less than 5 members, 20 households with 5 members and 10 households with more than 5 members. In this scenario 80 % of the adults in child bearing age are married, and 80 % of them have children. The proportion of children to their parents is 102:80 or 1.28:1.
However, in relation to population growth, this scenario actually represents stagnation or possibly even regression. Knowing that a large number of the children will die before they reach the child bearing age, it is questionable if the population can keep its present level. This scenario represents a society where people are willing to have children, but not too many of them. This may be because the parents want free-time (an anachronistic concept on pre-modern Harn). Or the parents cannot afford the children, meaning that the situation is practically the same as in the preceding scenario. Or the parents have a very low capacity of reproduction, meaning that something is wrong in their nutrition, or that they live in a very unhealthy environment, or that they are under a spell...
In the end this scenario also supports the small population of Harn, but suggests a freer and more secure life for the population. The reason for the small population remains more obscure, however.
Barbarian population patterns
The Harnic barbarians, mostly lacking the medical advantages of the civilized population and leading more violent lives, have markedly different population patterns. More babies are born, but fewer of them make it to adulthood. The violent surroundings and often martial culture of the barbarians result in higher death tolls throughout human life, resulting in fewer old people. However, the following pattern is not universal, as there are barbarian nations that are quite sophisticated and less violent when compared to the general picture (cf. Taelda, Chymak, etc.). There are also barbarian nations that differ totally from the pattern given below (cf. the Ramali sub-tribe of the Gozyda).
| Age | Proportion |
|---|---|
| Children (0-14) | 45 % |
| Young adults (15-19) | 12 % |
| Adults (20-39) | 27 % |
| Elders (40-64) | 15 % |
| Old people (65-) | 1 % |
Gender and age groups
The barbarian gender and age group patterns differ from those of the civilized populations:
- more boys than girls are born (52%-48%),
- many more boys than girls die in their childhood (before their 15th birthday), because they are being taught in hunting and fighting,
- even with the notion above, with young adults, the proportions of the genders tend to be equal, because women get pregnant younger and more of them die before the age of 20,
- not just young women, but also mature women die in childbirth, resulting in proportionally fewer (full) adult women,
- the proportions of men and women tend to even out at old age, as men fight less and women don’t give birth anymore.
Thus the breakdown of gender and age groups for Harnic barbarians looks like this:
| Age | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Children (0-14) | 22 % | 23 % |
| Young adults (15-19) | 6 % | 6 % |
| Adults (20-39) | 14 % | 13 % |
| Elders (40-64) | 7.5 % | 7.5 % |
| Old people (65-) | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
| Total: | 50 % | 50 % |
| Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|
| Children: | 22 % | 23 % |
| Adults: | 27.5 % | 26.5 % |
| Old: | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
Barbarian warriors
On the other hand, the harsh living conditions result in deaths of crippled people, meaning that those who live are usually healthy and able-bodied. Thus almost all barbarian adult males (and in some cultures also females) are warriors. This means that while there are proportionally less adult males in the barbarian societies than in the civilized societies, the barbarian tribes can muster about the same proportion of military men as the civilized societies, i.e. ¼ of the population. Actually, the proportion of militarily capable men in the barbarian societies is slightly larger than in the civilized societies, and those barbarian nations which accept female warriors can mobilize 30–40 % of their population. (With the Kath, the number lies around 40 %, with the Ramali Gozyda it can be as high as 60 %.) On the other hand the barbarian warriors are less specialized, and a larger proportion (approximately one sixth) of them are really young and inexperienced.
Population patterns and society: causes and effects
While the Harnic population level is very low when compared for example with medieval England, we should be able to see the differences in the histories of the populations of England and Harn. Harn is not medieval England or any other part of medieval Europe. The geography, climate, history and to a degree the society of Harn differ from Europe and England in a way that makes it possible to understand the reasons for a low population level without any artificiality or discrepancies.
- Humans have existed on Harn only for some 3000–4000 years. They have been present in large numbers only for the latest 2000 years, and of this time they have spent no more than some 1400 years free from the control of the elder races. The Harnic sources are unambiguous in presenting the year BT500 as the general starting point of an independent human culture on Harn.
- The technological level of the human population on Harn is not as high as in the European high medieval times. There are still Stone Age people living on Harn, and we don’t know how long the Harnians have been able to utilize bronze and iron. It seems proved that the Henge culture inhabiting the island of Melderyn didn’t utilize metals. It is possible that also the Jarin arriving on Harn some 2000 years ago were Stone Age people, learning to utilize metals only from the elder races and from invading Lythians. Humans may have learned to use iron only in the 1st century BT or TR, when the social changes leading from tribalism to kingdom building started. It is even possible that ironworking landed on Harn only in the 2nd century TR with the Pagaelin, and was first utilized by them, explaining in part why reasonably small tribal populations could conquer large territories from Chybisan and Pagostran settled and better organized populations.
- While the elder races possessed knowledge of metalworking for millennia before the humans arrived, they have jealously guarded their knowledge at least since the Atani Wars. When this is combined with the fact that humans have from time to time been able to trade or otherwise obtain Khuzan metalware, a peculiar pattern emerges: humans can use tools and weapons of advanced metallurgy without knowing how to produce such tools.
- The fact that the population density even on areas under heavy cultivation is only about half or third of population densities in similar areas on high medieval Terra suggests that the Harnic agricultural technology is primitive. Either the tools are less efficient, or the crops species produce smaller yields, or the soil is poorer, or the climate is adverse. Likely all of these factors are in work on Harn. Typically, pre-modern societies faced crisis (famine with disease combined) once in 30 years, resulting in deaths of up to 10 % of the population. On Harn, these kind of crisis can be more frequent or more deadly, or both.
- The Harnian elites have a habit of constructing and keeping large, sophisticated and expensive fortifications. Similar tendencies in court life are evident. A population base resembling that of 8th century England has to support an elite lifestyle resembling that of 12th and 13th century England. The living standards of the Harnian elites, when compared to the population numbers, are high, meaning that the elites tax their subjects harder in order to be able to consume more. This is also a reason for banditry, when people with little to loose risk their lives trying to get their piece of the cake.
- Strong faith in gods channels important human and economic assets into worship. In addition, local acceptance of anarchistic gods that do not support the society, but instead teach violence and selfish behaviour, makes the society less stable and less secure. The splintered philosophies and religious societal ideals offer little interest for mundane everyday matters, and many people are more concerned of their afterlife than of their present life. The religious impetus for human reproduction is less intensive that on medieval Terra.
Conclusion
It is my understanding that the population level of Harn has never been much larger than now, and that it has been stagnant for several generations. While the Harnic population has been seen as “artificially low”, natural reasons can be given for the stagnant Harnic population: primitive agricultural technology, harsh living conditions and suppressive society. This kind of population is very sensitive to the effects of famines, wars, diseases etc.
Put shortly, Harn shows many tendencies familiar to Dark Age Europe in the 5th–8th centuries. Even with a higher culture of the elite and certain places of scientific (philosophical/magical) learning, the general picture is not dynamic (as in the Viking Age or the 11th–13th centuries). A low and stagnating level of population doesn’t conflict with a low and stagnating level of human achievement, but instead supports it, being a coherent part of the Harnic whole.